Economic Policy News
- Ready for curbs, but will it matter?
Date: 23-Apr-2007 Sources: (Shenzhen Daily)
CHINESE investors are ready for what most consider to be inevitable government moves to rein in the economy, after first-quarter growth figures showed previous efforts had been far too little.
But questions also emerged if any further measures the government could realistically adopt would matter much.
The fact that China reported growth of 11.1 percent in the first quarter - despite a slew of policies to slow down activity - was seen as a sign the world's fourth-largest economy is becoming harder to manage.
'There have been three interest rate hikes over the past year and all of them proved to have little impact on the property market,'said Joe Zhou, a Shanghai-based analyst with real estate consulting firm Jones Lang LaSalle.
'Developers won't stop construction just because of a small interest rate rise.'
Property professionals were not the only ones looking at future government economic moves with an attitude bordering on apathy.
'It's not like we're working overtime or constantly monitoring the central bank Web site,'said Zhang Qi, a Shanghai-based trader with Haitong Securities.
'Even if there's a rate hike, it will be small, and like the others before it, it won't have a big impact on the market,'he said.
Reflecting the coolness of the markets, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers A and B shares closed Friday morning up 3.9 percent, following a 4.5 percent tumble one day earlier.
'Even if there is more tightening from the central bank, for example during the Labor Day holiday in early May, it won't have any significant impact on the market as it's already factored in,'said Shen Jun, a trader with Shangzhenglian Investment Consulting in Shanghai.
In stark contrast to the wheeler-dealers in the plush offices of China's financial districts, the State-run media maintained the government could actually do something serious about the economy.
'At this point, it is not hard to say what the government should do,'the China Daily said in an editorial. 'Plenty of observers say that China should slow down the speed of its growth in every category.'
But the recent record of Chinese economic policy making might suggest this is easier said than done.
The economy's red-hot performance in the first three months has been fueled by the two factors the government has vowed to place under tighter control - net exports and investment.
China's trade surplus roughly doubled in the first three months of the year to 46.4 billion dollars, despite successive moves to reduce export tax incentives while making imports easier and more attractive.
In the same period, liquidity-driven investments in fixed assets grew 23.7 percent, in defiance of official steps to rein in the amount of money floating around in the system.
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