Economic Trend News
- China's changing demographics could see house prices decline after 2015: expert
Date: 13-Mar-2007 Sources: (People's Daily)
China's housing prices are likely to dip somewhat after 2015 when the country's population will be made up of fewer middle-aged people, according to a renowned Chinese economist.
China's soaring house prices are related to the current population structure, said Ha Jiming, leading economist with China International Capital Corporation.
The country witnessed a baby boom in the 1950s and 1960s and while the boomers of the 50's reached middle-age in the 1990's the later set of baby boomers will reach their middle years in 2015. The rising number of adult baby boomers and their children have created a high demand for housing, he said.
The high demand for housing will reach a turning point after 2015, as the number of middle-aged people seeking to buy housing for themselves and their children will decline, said Ha, adding that this is the result of the country's family planning policy.
Formulated in the early 1970s, China's family planning policy encourages late marriages and late childbearing, and limits most urban couples to one child and most rural couples to two children.
It's estimated that without the policy the country's population would be 400 million higher than the current 1.3 billion people.
Official statistics showed that the average price of newly-built commercial residential houses in 70 large- and
medium-sized Chinese cities gained 6.1 percent year on year in Jan., with the southern metropolis of Shenzhen recording the highest rate of growth at 10.2 percent.
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