Export Data News
- Trade surplus plunges, seen as anomaly
Date: 11-Apr-2007 Sources: (Shenzhen Daily)
THE country's trade surplus plunged to US$6.87 billion in March, confounding expectations it would be close to February's near-record US$23.8 billion, but analysts said special factors suggested the underlying trend remained strong.
Annual export growth swung to a five-year low of 6.9 percent from 51.7 percent in February.
'My guess is that Chinese exporters rushed to export in the first two months because of concerns over reductions in export tax rebates, leaving them with fewer goods to ship in March,'said Zhang Yongjun, an economist with the State Information Center in Beijing.
Other analysts agreed that March was probably an anomaly and that there would be no let-up in U.S. pressure on the Chinese Government to do more to trim its surplus.
China has introduced a raft of cuts in export tax rebates for products it is trying to discourage firms from sellings overseas, like some basic metals. More such changes are expected so some firms may have accelerated shipments.
Qing Wang, an economist with the Bank of America in Hong Kong, said the trend was still for rising surpluses.
'If you look at the first quarter data as a whole, it is still a very large trade surplus,'Wang said. 'For the entire year, the trade surplus could be huge.'
The surplus for the first quarter came to US$46.44 billion, twice that in the first quarter of 2006. Annual export growth for the quarter as a whole reached 27.8 percent, with imports up 18.2 percent. In March alone, import growth was 14.5 percent.
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